[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The bulk of the C-flare activity continued to be from Regions 3107 (S25E20, Eai/beta) and 3110 (N16E53, Dsc/beta). The largest flares of the period were a C7/Sf at 24/1607 UTC from Region 3107 and a C7 at 24/1719 UTC from Region 3110. Slight growth and development was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3110 while Region 3107 showed slight growth in its intermediate and trailing spots. Slight decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 3105 (S17E02, Dki/beta). Regions 3108 (S12W30, Cso/beta) and 3109 (N10W45, Bxo/beta) were in decay.

Two CMEs were observed beginning at 24/1724 UTC off the E-NE limb and at 24/2124 UTC off the SE limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. CME analysis showed no Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 25-27 Sep. The most likely sources for the production of M-class or greater flares are Regions 3105, 3107, and 3110.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 25-27 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced with solar wind speed declining from approximately 450 km/s to near 360 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be near nominal levels on 25-26 Sep. A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 27 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a weakly enhanced solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the rest of 25 Sep and continuing through 26 Sep. A connection with a negative polarity CH HSS is favorable on 27 Sep causing unsettled to active levels.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation