[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5 from a region beyond the NE limb. Region 3105 (S16W52, Dao/beta) was in slow decay. Region 3107 (S25W33, Cai/beta) lost most of its mature penumbra among its trailing spots. Region 3110 (N16W01, Cso/beta) lost its trailer spots but gained a few leader spots. Region 3111 (N26E48, Hsx/alpha) remained simple and stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 01 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was 1 pfu or less and was below the 10 pfu warning threshold for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels through 01 Oct, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist slightly above background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remains slightly elevated. Total field strength peaked at 7 nT, and the Bz component was mostly in a northward orientation. Wind speed decreased from around 540 km/s to 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Day 1 (29 Sep) will be a day of transition before a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS arrives late on 30 Sep. A CME that left the Sun early on 28 Sep is expected to pass close enough to Earth on 01 Oct to further enhance the IMF.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Sep. A recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective late on 30 Sep and increase geomagnetic activity to G1 (Minor) storm levels. On 01 Oct a CME is expected to pass close enough to Earth to further enhance the geomagnetic field, making G2 (Moderate) storm levels increasingly likely.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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