[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3105 (S16W36, Cai/beta-gamma) continued to decay while becoming marginally more magnetically complex. This region also produced a C5/sf flare at 27/1957 UTC, which was the largest of the period. Mixed polarities were also observed around Region 3107 (S25W19, Eai/beta-gamma), but overall its presentation was unchanged. Region 3108 (S13, L=210) decayed to plage. Region 3110 (N15E14, Cai/beta) lost penumbra on its trailing spot, but several intermediate spots remained. Region 3111 (N27E62, Hax/alpha), numbered this period, was stable.

A filament eruption was observed in the proximity of the trailer spots of Region 3110 in GONG H-Alpha imagery near 28/0230 UTC. There was also an eruption (~27/2230 UTC) and subsequent dimming (~28/0400 UTC) visible in SUVI 195 imagery. A series of CMEs were observed off the east limb beginning near 28/0125 UTC. Analysis/WSA Enlil modelling is underway at the time of this writing to determine if there is any geoffective potential.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 28 Sep, and a slight chance for M-class flares on 29-30 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped to moderate levels as electrons were redistributed with recent geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 1-2 pfu, but below the 10 pfu warning threshold for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels for the next three days (28-30 Sep), and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist slightly above background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained enhanced from what was likely combined CME and CIR/CH HSS (-) effects. Total field was at 16 nT at the beginning of the period and settled at 5 nT after 27/2300 UTC. The Bz component was variable early, then mostly northward for the latter half of the period. Wind speeds averaged near 560-570 km/s. Wind measurements became unreliable from NOAAs DSCOVR satellite between ~27/1630-27/2030 UTC. Phi was negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 28 Sep with ongoing activity. Day 2 (29 Sep) will be a day of transition before the next CH HSS (+) arrives late on 30 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 28 Sep with lingering HSS influences. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated by 29 Sep as the IMF settles and wind speed decreases. The next recurrent CH HSS (-) is expected to arrive on 30 Sep, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely.

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