[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3105 (S16W24, Dai/beta) and Region 3107 (S25W05, Esi/beta) were the most active regions but remained mostly unchanged. Region 3107 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.8 at 27/0637 UTC. Region 3110 (N15E29, Chi/beta) exhibited decay in its trailer spots and was inactive. There is a new spot group emerging on the NE limb that has also contributed a few low-level C-class flares. A Type II radio emission was observed and appeared to be associated with a C1 flare from Region 3105. No inbound CMEs were noted.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity through 29 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,640 pfu observed at 26/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly above background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on for the next three days (27-29 Sep) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist slightly above background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal until just after 26/2100 UTC, when conditions became enhanced-likely due to a combination of CIR onset and an embedded transient. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from 300-500 km/s. Total field reached 31 nT at 27/0419 UTC and remained at or above 20 nT for the remainder of the period. Bz was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -17 nT. Density reached a peak of 92 ppcm3 near 27/0100 UTC. Phi was mostly negative but fluctuated between 26/1900-27/0400 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 27 Sep in response to combined CH/CME effects. Conditions should remain elevated on 28 Sep as CME/CH HSS influence persists. A more nominal solar wind is expected to return on 29 Sep with diminishing CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels during the 27/00-03 UT period due to the combined effects of CIR onset and an embedded transient.

Forecast: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate storms are expected to continue on 27 Sep with combined CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 28 Sep, and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Sep as CME/CH HSS effects wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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