[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Oct 03 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Oct 03 0500 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September - 02 October 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. Low levels occured from 26-29 Sep with numerous C-class flares observed from Regions 3105 (S17, L=210, class/area Dki/490 on 22 Sep), 3107 (S25, L=113, class/area Fai/240 on 24 Sep) and 3112 (N23, L=052, class/area Fki/750 on 02 Oct), the largest region on the disk. The largest of these flares was a long duration C5.5 from Region 3112.

Activity increased to moderate levels with three M-class flares from Region 3112 including an M2.9 at 30/1622 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected with these flares. Activity levels further increased to high with an M5.8/1b flare observed at 01/2010 UTC from Region 3110 (N16, L=158, class/area Dhi/320 on 25 Sep). Analysis and modelling of the subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed component. In addition, a slow rise and fall C3.5 x-ray event, with an associated filament eruption, was detected from Region 3113 (N16, L=154, class/area Dao/100 on 01 Oct). Analysis and modelling of the subsequent CME indicated a possible Earth-directed component.

High levels continued with M-class activity from Regions 3110 and 3112, the largest of these was an M8.7/1n from Region 3110. Associated with this event was a Type IV, a Tenflare (190 sfu) and a possible Earth-directed CME. Late on 02 Oct, the largest event of the highlight period was observed from Region 3110, an X1.0 with an associated Type II (1157 km/s) and 420 sfu Tenflare. Also associated with this event was a CME that had not been analyzed as of this writing.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 26 Sep with a peak flux of 2,640 pfu observed at 26/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly elevated to near 2 pfu on the 27th and near 1 pfu on 01 and 02 Oct due to major flare activity.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 26 Sep. By 27 Sep, levels increased to unsettled to major storm due to negative polarity CH HSS effects coupled with CME effects from 24 Sep. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 28-29 Sep. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 30 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet levels returned on 01 Oct through midday or so on 02 Oct. Later on 02 Oct, unsettled to minor storm levels were observed due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 October - 29 October 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning active regions. Low levels are expected during the interim dates from 15-17 Oct.

A chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit are possible from 03-14 Oct and again from 18-29 Oct due to current active regions on the visible disk and returning active regions. No proton events are expected during the interim dates from 15-17 Oct.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly normal to moderate levels during the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at minor to major storm levels on 03-05 Oct due to combined positive polarity CH HSS and CME effects. Unsettled levels are possible on 10 Oct, 15-16 Oct and 20-21 Oct with active levels possible on 15-16 Oct, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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