[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels as Region 3110 (N18E58, Dai/beta-delta) produced an X1 flare (R3-Strong) at 02/2025 UTC along with an associated 560 sfu Tenflare, Type II radio sweep (1157 km/s), and a CME off the NW limb first observed at 02/2036 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The region also produced an M4 flare at 03/1011 UTC and an M1 flare at 03/1111 UTC. Region 3110 continued to show growth and consolidation within its northern spots while the southern spot began to separate. Region 3112 (N22E53, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced 3 M-class flares over the period; an M1/Sf at 02/1405 UTC, an M1/Sf at 02/1545 UTC, and an M2/Sf at 03/0233 UTC with an associated 170 sfu Tenflare. Slight decay and separation was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3112.

Other activity included an approximate 24 degree filament eruption centered near S33E40 that began at 02/2306 UTC in H-alpha imagery. Two CMEs were observed off the SE limb at 03/0036 UTC and 03/0236 UTC. The CME at 03/0036 UTC is related to the filament eruption whereas the source location for the 03/0236 UTC CME could not be ascertained. Modelling of the CME at 02/2036 indicated a miss. Analysis of the 03/0036 UTC CME is in progress.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels with further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) expected and a chance for X-class flares (R3-strong) on 03-05 Oct due to flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed enhancements above background levels in response to X-class flare activity from Region 3110, but remained below event levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a chance for minor (S1-Minor) radiation storm conditions over 03-05 Oct due to the flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced over the period, possibly from a CIR ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS or weak transient activity from 28 Sep. Total field began to increase after 02/1910 UTC from 5 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component deflected southward from 02/1951 UTC until 03/0140 UTC reaching a maximum of -9 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 450 km/s to near 570 km/s during that time. Total field showed a brief decrease to around 6 nT at 03/0000 UTC and increased to 13 nT by the end of the period. Solar wind speed decreased to near 480 km/s but showed another increase to around 600 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced late on 03 Oct/early on 04 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 01 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to possible weak transient/CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm levels (G1) on 03 Oct, and moderate storm levels (G2) early on 04 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 01 Oct. Unsettled to Minor storm (G1) conditions are predicted on 05 Oct.

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