[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels during the period. Region 3112 (N23E40, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most complex sunspot group on the visible disk. The region underwent some decay in its far eastern trailer, but it also produced lower level M-class flares. Initial analysis of available GOES/SUVI imagery did not reveal any clear CME signatures with these flares. Region 3110 (N18W71, Dai/beta) was stable. Region 3114 (S34W08) decayed to plage and the remaining regions underwent minor changes and did not produce any significant activity.

Other activity included an approximate 24 degree filament eruption centered near S33E40 that began at 02/2306 UTC in H-alpha imagery. Two CMEs were observed off the SE limb at 03/0036 UTC and 03/0236 UTC. Initial analysis and modeling of the CMEs determined a possible glancing on 6 Oct.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) expected and a chance for X-class flares (R3-strong) on 4 Oct due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112. Even though Region 3110 will reach the west limb beginning on 5 Oct, flares could still be detected into early 6 Oct. Although, based on recent trends, solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a continuing chance for X-class flares 5-6 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a chance for minor (S1-Minor) solar radiation storm conditions 04-06 Oct due to the solar energetic particle potential of Regions 3110 and 3112, and in particular, the favorable location of Region 3110. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 4 Oct, with a chance for high levels due to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are likely on 5 Oct, with a chance for high levels due to combined CME/CH HSS effects. High levels are expected on 6 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced with CH HSS and possible embedded transient influences. Total field settled to 6 - 8 nT after ~03/1930 UTC and the Bz component underwent a few occasions of pronounced and prolonged southward deflections occurred - with a maximum deviation of -13 nT. Solar wind speed was unsteady between mainly 500-550 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced on 4 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a glancing blow transient comprised of several CMEs that departed the Sun on 1 Oct into early 2 Oct. Enhanced conditions are likely to weaken, but continue through 6 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels in varied response to the enhanced and disturbed solar wind field.

Forecast: Overall planetary geomagnetic response is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 4 Oct in reaction to combined CH HSS influences and CME arrival, with subsequent effects. G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 5 Oct due to continuing, but weakening CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated for 6 Oct as the DSF related CME from 3 Oct may deal a glancing blow to the near Earth environment.

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