[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 05 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate due to a solo M1.6/Sn flare at 04/1315 UTC. The flare was from Region 3110 (N18W85, Dai/beta), which otherwise produced C-class and optical subflares. Region 3112 (N23E26, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. But, despite its classification and magnetic complexity, the region was the source of only C-class and optical subflares. The remaining spot groups underwent minor changes and did not produce notable activity.

A CME occurred in relation to an approximately 12 degree long filament eruption, centered at about S28E09 that began near 04/1327 UTC, as observed in NSO/GONG imagery. Coronagraph imagery revealed this CME to appear mostly southward directed but a glancing blow on 8 Oct is possible.

An additional CME was observed in the SW associated with a second filament eruption centered near S30W35. This CME was modelled and determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a continuing likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a chance for X-class flares (R3; Strong) 05-06 Oct due primarily to the flare tendencies of Region 3110 and flare potential of Region 3112. Region 3110 will rotate beyond the west limb, leaving Region 3112 as the main flare potential source, and therefore solar activity is likely to remain moderate, with a slight chance of X-class flares on 07 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background, with a chance for an S1 (Minor solar radiation storm) event 05-06 Oct, due primarily to the solar energetic particle event probabilities and somewhat favorable location of Region 3110. Region 3110 rotates beyond the limb by 07 Oct, therefore, proton event chances decrease to a slight chance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance for high levels on 05 Oct due to CH HSS effects. High levels are likely 06-07 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength remained enhanced and varied through the period with a peak of 8 nT. The Bz component was variable at +/-6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 510-550 km/s and the phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: It remains unclear at this point whether the elevated IMF yesterday was strictly CIR-related or enhanced and disturbed further due to flanking influences of an early arriving CME from the 1-2 Oct activity. Regardless, there are several other CMEs in transit that appeared to be just ahead of Earth orbit - with some level of uncertainty. Therefore, there still remains the possibility of transient influences on 05 Oct. Otherwise, the positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue and begin waning on 06 Oct. Another CME associated with a DSF on 03 Oct was modeled extensively and there is mild risk of a weak flanking edge influence on 06 Oct as the majority of ejecta is likely to pass mainly behind and south of Earth. Any enhanced conditions are expected to wane on 07 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: There is an early expectation of a G1 (Minor) storm on 05 Oct due to CH HSS effects, coupled with any potential transient influences. Otherwise, primarily quiet to active conditions are anticipated. Effects due to proximity of a nearby CME passage on 06 Oct are expected to result in quiet to unsettled conditions, with an active period likely. CH HSS and any CME influences are expected to wane on 07 Oct, resulting in mainly quiet to unsettled conditions.

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