[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 06 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to low levels as only C-class flares and enhancements were observed. Region 3112 (N22E15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the most impressive group of spots present on the visible disk. The region underwent minor changes and only produced C-class and optical subflares. The region is rather lengthy in heliographic extent (25 deg) and now that it has become less foreshortened, magnetic maps hint the spots could possibly be comprised of three separate, but close proximity regions. This implies less intra-magnetic connectivity and could be a reason why this spot complex has been less active than would be normally expected. However, more observational data will be necessary before any region separation is considered further.

Region 3116 (N29E22, Dai/beta) grew in spots and coverage, but was absent of notable activity. The remaining numbered regions underwent little or minor change. There are two new areas of spot development located near N09E65 and N19E53. However, we need to ensure these potential regions do not decay over the next several hours before considering for region assignment. No potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity remains likely to be moderate, with a decreasing likelihood of M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a decreasing chance of X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 06 Oct as Region 3110 rotates beyond the limb and Region 3112 remains less active than anticipated. Low levels of solar activity, with a chance of M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class events are expected 07-08 Oct due mainly to the flare potential of Region 3112.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values, while the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum of 2,952 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with a decreasing slight chance of a S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 06-08 Oct as Region 3110 rotates further beyond the limb (becoming less of a consideration). Region 3112 still has some potential for a solar proton event, but is not in a favorable position.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued positive polarity CH HSS influences and an enhancement in the IMF near 05/1600 UTC. Total IMF strength had decreased back to ambient conditions of 3-5 nT, but the aforementioned disturbance increased total field to a peak of 9 nT. The Bz component was variable as it swayed between north and south orientations. Subsequent with the enhancement, the Bz component deviated southward to reach a maximum of -7 nT. The IMF remained mildly enhanced afterwards. Solar wind speed ranged from ~450-530 km/s with a few outlying speeds. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: The reason for the 05/1600 UTC total field enhancement can not be verified, but it is reasonable to speculate that one of the nearby passing CMEs (noted in previous discussions) could have resulted in such a disturbance. The solar wind environment is likely to continue under varying influences of isolated positive polarity CH HSS features 06-08 Oct. Additional enhancements are possible due to nearby or flanking influences of CMEs (from 3 and 4 Oct) transiting mainly south of and behind Earths orbital position. However, forecast confidence in the modeled trajectory of these CMEs is low.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied reaction to the enhanced solar wind parameters.

Forecast: CH HSS effects, coupled with potential mild influences of nearby transit passages are expected to cause unsettled conditions, with periods of active levels likely 06-07 Oct. Absent any new transients, the waning CH HSS effects and early stages of another isolated positive polarity CH HSS onset are likely to result in mainly quiet to unsettled levels 08 Oct, with a chance for active conditions.

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