[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long-duration M1/1f flare at 07/1444 UTC from Region 3116 (N30W08, Dai/beta-delta). The region exhibited trailer spot growth, overall area growth and some weak mixed polarities within its trailer spots. The largest region on the disk, Region 3112 (N22W10, Fkc/beta-delta) produced an impulsive C6.6/Sf at 08/0040 UTC along with a few other C-class flares. Trailer spot consolidation and overall area decay was observed in the region. Region 3119 (N27E25, Dao/beta) produced a C1.0 flare at 08/0621 UTC. The region developed rapidly over the past 24 hours from a simple bi-polar B-type group to a D-type group, particularly in its trailer portion. The remaining regions were quiet and stable.

Other activity included an approximate 20 degree filament eruption observed beginning at 07/0706 UTC. An associated CME off the NW limb was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 07/0855 UTC. Initial model output for this slow moving CME suggested a possible glancing blow on 12 Oct. However, further analysis is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong) on 08-10 Oct due to the flare potential of Regions 3112 and 3116.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 2,903 pfu observed at 07/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 08-10 Oct due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed generally ranged from about 490-550 km/s with some peaks approaching 590 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +6/-7 nT. Phi angle was in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue on 08-10 Oct as another positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position on 08 Oct. CMEs from 03 and 04 Oct could possibly cause additional enhancements in the solar wind.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 08 Oct followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 09-10 Oct due to HSS activity with possible embedded transient influences.

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