[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with mostly low level C-class flare activity from Regions 3112 (N22W21, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) and 3116 (N30W19, Eao/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C3.3/Sf at 09/0813 UTC from Region 3112. Slight decay was observed in the trailing and intermediate spots of Region 3112. Slight decay was also observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3116. Slight growth was observed in Region 3119 (N27E14, Dai/beta).

A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at about 09/0200 UTC off the SE limb associated with an 8 degree, north/south oriented filament eruption centered near S24E45. The CME was analyzed and model output suggested no Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong) on 09-11 Oct due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3112 and 3116.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 3,557 pfu observed at 08/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 09-11 Oct due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was enhanced under CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed indicated a slow, gradual increase through the period from about 489-584 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz was mostly southward to -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue on 09-10 Oct. A return to near nominal levels is expected on 11 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 09-10 Oct due to HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 11 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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