[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3112 (N22W59, Eki/beta) underwent decay but managed several C-class flares. Region 3119 (N29W24, Dai/beta) was stable and produced a few C-class flares. The other regions were unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected, with a chance for M-class flares on 12-14 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high, with a maximum flux of 4,650 pfu and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels 12-14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field strength was steady at 4 nT, while the Bz component underwent benign deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from ~400 km/s to near 350 km/s. Phi switched from positive to negative near 12/00 UTC.

Forecast: Nominal conditions are expected to continue through 14 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet through 14 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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