[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 3112 (N25W71, Eki/beta) underwent decay but managed an M1 flare at 13/0019 UTC. Region 3119 (N29W36, Dai/beta) was stable and produced a C4 flare at 13/0917 UTC. Region 3121 (N23E66, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected, with a chance for M-class flares on 13-15 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels 12-15 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field strength was steady below 5nT, while the Bz component underwent benign deviations. Solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s. Phi switched polarities multiple rotations during the period.

Forecast: Nominal conditions are expected to continue through 14 Oct. 15 Oct may see minor elevation in solar wind conditions as the result of a small negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet 13-14 Oct. 15 Oct may see quiet to unsettled conditions as the result of a small negative polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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