[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decayed to low levels. A C1 flare was observed at 15/0522 UTC from old Region 3112 (N23, L=045) from just beyond the W limb. Slight decay was observed in Regions 3119 (N29W62, Cso/beta) and 3121 (N24E38, Axx/alpha). Both regions were quiet.

At about 14/2100 UTC, an approximate 13 degree long filament, centered near S42W15, began lifting off the disk. LASCO C2 imagery detected a CME off the SSW limb, first visible at 14/2236 UTC. Modelling of this CME is in progress.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at a slight chance for low levels on 15-17 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 15-17 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced under CH HSS influences with a possible embedded weak transient. Solar wind speeds gradually increased through the period from about 380 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field ranged from 6-17 nT while the Bz component varied between +14 nT to -12 nT. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 15 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Waning conditions are expected through 16-17 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences possibly coupled with a weak transient.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels for the remainder of 15 Oct in response to HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Oct followed by mostly quiet levels on 17 Oct as HSS conditions wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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