[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Departed Region 3112 (N22, L=049) produced a C6 flare from just beyond the NW limb at 15/1432 UTC. No additional flare activity was observed. New Regions 3122 (N25W37, Cao/beta), 3123 (N27W61, Cao/beta) and 3124 (S36W36, Dao/beta ) were all numbered over the past 24 hours. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S23W45 that began at 15/1440 UTC. An associated faint CME was observed off the SW limb at 15/1748 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis and modelling determined a miss at Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for low levels on 16-18 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 16-18 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed exhibited a slow, gradual rise through the period from about 520 km/s to near 600 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 4-8 nT while the Bz component generally varied between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a negative sector through about 16/0530 UTC when a switch to a positive orientation occurred.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue through 16 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Waning conditions are expected through 17-18 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. These conditions were in response to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of 16 Oct due to persistent, but waning, CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 17-18 Oct as HSS activity continues to wane.

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