[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region 3125 (S22, L=271) produced a C4.1 flare at 22/0303 UTC. A C6.4 flare was observed at 22/0542 UTC from a region beyond the NW limb. Slight growth was observed in Region 3126 (S11W18, Dri/beta). The remaining regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 22-24 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a brief peak to high levels of 1,164 pfu at 21/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 22 Oct followed by a decrease to normal to moderate levels on 23-24 Oct due to CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary crossing from negative to positive around 21/1046 UTC. Total field increased from approximately 3 nT to 12 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from 424 km/s to near 342 km/s. Also, ST A Mag & PLASTIC data indicated an increase in total field to near 24 nT beginning around 21/0000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 22 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 24 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 22-23 Oct due to CH HSS onset. Quiet to active levels are expected on 24 Oct as HSS conditions persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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