[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 3126 (S09W32, Cso/beta), the largest region on the disk, exhibited some trailer spot decay. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 23-25 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 23 Oct followed by an increase to moderate to high levels on 24-25 Oct due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 23-25 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a CIR/CH HSS. Total field ranged from 8-11 nT while the Bz component ranged from -10 nT to +6 nT. Solar wind speed began the period at about 330-350 km/s through about 22/2015 UTC. From 22/2015 UTC to 23/0500 UTC, wind speeds increased to an average of about 400 km/s and further increased to near 540 km/s by periods end. Phi angle switched from positive to negative at 22/1704 UTC.

Forecast: HSS conditions are expected to persist through 25 Oct. Further enhancements of total field are possible early on 23 Oct with solar wind speeds likely exceeding 500 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS onset.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of 23 Oct due to persistent CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on 24-25 Oct as HSS conditions persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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