[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with several C-class flares, the largest was an isolated C6.7 flare from Region 3133 (N26E55, Cro/beta). Region 3126 (S10W85, Cao/beta) was barely visible as it rotated towards the west limb. Region 3130 (S24W39, Dso/beta) underwent slight growth.

Additional activity included two simultaneous CMEs starting around 26/2130 UTC in C2 imagery. Both appear to be far-sided. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected with a chance for C-class flares 27-29 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal-moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal-moderate 27-29 Oct, with a chance for high levels 29 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained mostly nominal with mild enhancements likely due to SSBC influences. Wind speeds remained at or below 400 km/s. Total field strength was between 2-7 nT and Bz was variable. Phi was switching from negative early to mostly positive in the latter half of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through 29 Oct due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active levels are expected 27-28 Oct due to CH HSS effects. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 29 Oct, with continued CH HSS influences.

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