[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Low solar activity levels continued due to a few isolated C-class flares from newly designated Region 3133 (N26E67, Cro/beta). This region rotated into view and while severely foreshortened, did appear to be magnetically simple. However, it was the source of a C3.3 and C4.9/sf. A CME was observed off the NE limb associated with the C4.9 flare, modeled, and determined to be a clear miss. Region 3126 (S10W71, Dai/beta) continued rotating toward the W limb. Region 3131 (N23E52, Cso/beta) developed some opposite polarity umbrae, but remained inactive. The remaining regions underwent minor decay or little change.

An active filament was observed near S25W40 that coincided with dimming in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at ~26/0000 UTC. A very faint CME was observed off the SW limb in C2 imagery in close proximity to this time and believed to be associated with the aforementioned event. Modeling is underway at the time of this writing but due to its source location, its not believed to have an Earth-directed component.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 26-28 Oct, with a chance for C-class flares due primarily to the flare probabilities of Regions 3126 and 3133.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 26-28 Oct, with a chance for high levels 26-27 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength ranged mainly from 3-5 nT, while the Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations. Solar wind speed declined from early measurements of 425 km/s to ~375 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Primarily ambient, background-like conditions are anticipated on 26 Oct. An SSBC is anticipated at some point 26-27 Oct, followed by further disturbances and enhancements in the IMF due to an approaching CIR on 28 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected 26 Oct, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 27 Oct due to SSBC related effects. An approaching CIR ahead of an isolated positive polarity CH HSS on 28 Oct is expected to result in unsettled periods, with likely occasions of active levels.

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