[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with a couple of isolated C-class flares. Region 3126 (S10W57, Dai/beta) underwent growth as it gained in area. Region 3130 (S24W09, Bxo/beta) decayed slightly and remained in a simple bipolar configuration. Region 3131 (N23E64, Cro/beta) rotated further into view and was mostly inactive. New Region 3132 (S08W10, Bxo/beta) emerged and was numbered this period. There was an impulsive 10cm radio burst (180 sfu) at 25/0419 UTC. This event was not associated with any notable flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected 25-27 Oct, with mainly Region 3126 as the most likely source of any flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: CH HSS effects provide the chance for high levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux 25-27 Oct; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued, but weakened CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength declined from a peak of 11 nT to mainly 3-4 nT and the Bz component underwent weakened deviations as the period progressed. Solar wind speed decreased from ~500-425 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Negative polarity CH HSS influences are anticipated to wane 25 Oct as the CH source rotates away from a more geoeffective position. A return to a more ambient, background like state is anticipated 26-27 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be quiet to unsettled 25 Oct as CH HSS effects wane. 26-27 Oct is expected to mainly be quiet.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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