[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low-levels, with only two C-class flares. The largest was a C2 from Region 3135 (N26E05, Dso/beta). This remained the most active region and was stable in growth. The rest of the numbered regions were unremarkable and mostly inactive. New spots were noted near S12E05 and N20E50, but remain unnumbered at this time. There was a narrow CME off the NW limb associated with an eruptive prominence, beginning in C2 imagery near 01/1600 UTC. Due to the far NW location, this eruption was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low from 02-04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,783 pfu observed at 01/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 02-04 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was slightly enhanced with waning CH HSS influences. Total field strength was between 5-7 nT, the Bz component ranged from +/-5 nT. Wind speeds were mostly between 400-450 km/s. Phi remained in a positive orientation, with occasional, brief oscillations into a negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue to reflect waning CH HSS influence on 02-03 Nov. By 04 Nov, influence from a subsequent positive polarity CH HSS, located near center disk, is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a slight chance of an isolated active period, on 02-03 Nov as influence from the positive polarity CH HSS diminishes. Conditions are then expected to increase on 04 Nov, as influence from another positive polarity CH located near center disk, moves into a geoeffective position.

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