[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels. There was an area of dimming in SDO AIA 193 imagery near Region 3136 (S07E15, Cso/beta) and subsequent narrow CME off the SSE limb. These events are possibly associated but not expected to be Earth-directed. New Region 3139 (N28E54, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive. The rest of the numbered regions were stable or exhibited signs of decay, and lacked significant activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low from 03-05 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,466 pfu observed at 02/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03-05 Nov as CH HSS influence persists. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was slightly enhanced with CH HSS and possible transient influences. Total field strength increased from 5 nT to peak at 10 nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deviation to -9 nT. Wind speeds were mostly between 450-500 km/s. However, suspect data from the DSCOVR spacecraft inhibited accurate analysis. Phi remained in a mostly positive orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced on 03-04 Nov as positive polarity CH HSS influence combines with likely transient effects. By 05 Nov, influence from a subsequent positive polarity CH HSS, currently located just west of center disk, are expected to further enhance the solar wind environment, with wind speeds expected near 600 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods. The increased activity levels are likely attributed to a combination of CH HSS influence and affects from a possible transient feature.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 03-04 Nov as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 05 Nov, as influence from an additional positive polarity CH, located near center disk, moves into a geoeffective position.

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