[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity again remained at low levels. The largest flare was a C5 at 04/0744 UTC from a region just beyond the NE limb. New Region (3140 N24E68, Hsx/alpha) as it rotated onto the NE limb. The numbered regions were stable or exhibited signs of decay, and lacked significant activity.

Additional activity included an eruptive prominence in the far NE, with an associated CME thats first visible in C2 imagery near 03/2236 UTC. This CME is well north of the ecliptic and not Earth-directed. A second CME was observed off the SE limb that appears to be associated with a filament eruption visible in H-alpha and SDO AIA 304 imagery. Analysis and modeling are underway at the time of this summary.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with C-flares likely on 04-06 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,584 pfu observed at 03/1300 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Nov as CH HSS influence persists. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength decreased from 10 to 6 nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deviation to -10 nT early, then was +/- 6 nT during the latter half of the period. Wind speeds increased to a peak of ~600 km/s. Phi was positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 04-06 Nov as HSS influence persists.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic activity increased to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels due to HSS influences.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 04-05 Nov due to persistent CH HSS effects. Conditions should begin to wane by 06 Nov as the CH HSS begins to move away from a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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