[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Nov 07 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Nov 07 0624 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 October - 06 November 2022

Solar activity was at very low to high levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 31 Oct through 04 Nov with the majority of the low to mid-level C-class activity produced by Regions 3135 (N27, L=063, class/area Eao/190 on 31 Oct), 3131 (N23, L=111, class/area Cso/190 on 27 Oct), and 3141 (N15, L=319, class/area Eko/460 on 06 Nov). Region 3141 rotated onto the visible disk on 04 Nov as a large bipolar spot group, however the magnetic classification has been difficult to ascertain due to possible artifacts in the magnetogram imagery. Very low levels were observed on 05 Nov. By late on 06 Nov, an M5.2 flare occurred from Region 3141 reaching a peak at 07/0011 UTC. Associated with the flare was a Type II radio sweep (927 km/s), a 740 sfu Tenflare, and likely a CME off the SE as was evident by coronal darkening in GOES/SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 07/0008 UTC. Analysis of any associated CME is pending as imagery becomes available. Other CMEs preceding this event did not have an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period due to CH HSS influences. The peak flux was 8,980 pfu observed at 06/1515 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to multiple CH HSSs. Solar wind speed began the period near 500 km/s with total field near 5 nT. Solar wind speed slowly receded to near 410 km/s by late on 01 Nov. By midday on 02 Nov, total field and solar wind speed began to increase once again to near 10 nT and 560 km/s. Solar wind speed decreased to near 460 km/s on 03 Nov before increasing once again to near 580 km/s late on 03 Nov to early on 04 Nov. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased to background levels through 06 Nov. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Oct. Increased to quiet to active levels on 01-02 Nov and quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03 Nov. Quiet to active levels were observed on 04 Nov followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 05 Nov and ended at quiet levels on 06 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 November - 03 December 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 07-16 Nov due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3141.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-09 Nov and again on 26 Nov-03 Dec due to HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to active levels on 07-12 Nov, 18-20 Nov, and 23 Nov-03 Dec with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 18 Nov, 25 Nov, and 30 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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