[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 15 1235 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 15 1235 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1 flare from Region 3140 (N25W68, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) at 15/0251 UTC. Region 3140 also produced several C-class flares. Region 3141 (N15W61, Dai/beta) underwent decay, in particular in the trailing, negative polarity field. The region was absent of any notable activity. Region 3146 (N32E11, Cro/beta) underwent periods of slight growth and decay but was inactive.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for an M-class flare activity and a slight chance of an X-class flare activity on 15-17 Nov due to the recent flare history of Region 3140. However, the region will begin rotating to and beyond the west limb 16-17 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue 15-17 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background. However, there is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor solar radiation storm) all three days due to the favorable location of Region 3141 and its increased potential for a solar energetic particle event.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly disturbed and enhanced regime, likely due to tenuous CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 5 - 7 nT, while the Bz component underwent brief occasions of southward deflections. Solar wind speed averaged near 425 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to undergo minor enhancements due to CH HSS influences 15-16 Nov. Any CH HSS influences are likely to wane on 17 Nov as the source CHs rotate away from a geoeffective position. A slow, faint CME departed the Sun early on 13 Nov, related to a filament eruption. This CME was modeled and determined to be a likely miss ahead and south of Earth. However, there is a level of uncertainty with regards to this feature, and there is an outside chance of a weak flanking influence from this CME on 18 Nov (outside of the current 3-day forecast period.) that may be noted as a minor enhancement in the solar wind.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Geomagnetic responses of quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active levels, are expected 15-16 Nov due to variable CH HSS effects. Nov 17 is anticipated to be mainly quiet as CH HSS influences wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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