[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class activity. Region 3140 (N25W82, Ekc/beta-gamma) continued to rotate onto the limb and produced low-level C flares. The other numbered regions were in slight decay and were inactive. The CME from 14 Nov mentioned in the previous report was determined to be a clear miss. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares on 16 Nov, and a slight chance for M flares on 17-18 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 16-18 Nov. There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 16-17 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at ambient levels. Total field and Bz were at benign values. Solar wind speeds were below 400 km/s and phi was negative.

Forecast: Ambient conditions are anticipated on 16-17 Nov. Slight enhancements are possible on 18 Nov with a slow moving transient from 13 Nov anticipated to pass near Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet on 16-17 Nov. Unsettled conditions are possible on 18 Nov due to a nearby passing CME from 13 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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