[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class activity. Region 3145 (N23W89, Cso/Beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C6 at 17/0928 UTC. Regions 3140 (N23, L=327) and 3141 (N14, L=321) rotated beyond the west limb. New Region 3149 (N22E72, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive.

Other notable activity included a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant around 16/1100 UTC which resulted in a slow, narrow CME. This event has been modeled and determined to be a possible glancing blow at Earth on 21 Nov.

No other significant CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity through 18 Nov as Region 3145 rotates beyond the western limb. Activity is anticipated to become less frequent on 19 Nov with only a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Nov. There is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm through 17 Nov.

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at ambient levels. Solar wind speeds averaged near 325 km/s until late in the period when it increased to near 400 km/s. Total field and Bz were at benign values. Phi was predominantly negative until ~17/0800 UTC when oscillations to both sector began to occur.

Forecast: Ambient conditions are anticipated to continue over the course of 17 Nov. A chance for enhanced conditions may return 18 Nov due to glancing influence from the 14th Nov CME event which was modeled to be just ahead of Earths orbit. Additional enhancements are expected 19 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet on 17 Nov. Unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active period, are possible 18 Nov due to possible effects of the aforementioned 14 Nov CME event. Active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are expected 19 Nov as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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