[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3150 (N22W63, Dai/beta) produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 19/1256 UTC, the largest event of the period. Type-II and IV radio emissions were observed at the time of the event, and the associated CME is expected to miss to the west. Another C3 flare was observed at 20/0609 UTC from Region 3150 that requires additional coronagraph imagery to determine if an Earth-directed CME was produced. The region exhibited consolidation in its leader spot and minor development in its trailer spot. Minor development was also observed in Region 3149 (N22E30, Cai/beta). The remaining regions were either stable or in gradual decay.

Other activity included an erupting filament that began lifting off early on 19 Nov in the NE quadrant. After analysis and modeling of the event, the model output suggested a possible glancing blow on 22 Nov. Several other CMEs were observed but analysis suggested they were mostly oriented westward of Earth.

Forecast: C-flare activity is expected over 20-22 Nov with a slight chance for additional M-flare (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 20-22 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-11 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds remained low and fluctuated between ~310-360 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 20-22 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible arrival of a CME from 17 Nov on 21 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor storm levels on 20-21 Nov, and active levels on 22 Nov, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. A CME from 17 Nov is likely to arrive on 21 Nov and another CME from 19 Nov is possible on 22 Nov.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation