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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Nov 21 0654 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 November 2022
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 15 and 19 Nov. On 15 Nov, Region 3140 (N25, L= 326, class/area Ekc/550 on 14 Nov) produced an M1/1n at 15/0251 UTC. On 19 Nov, Region 3150 (N22, L=253, class/area Dso/140 on 19 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 19/1256 UTC along with associated Type II (930 km/s) and IV radio sweeps as well as a non-Earth-directed CME observed beginning at 19/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Other activity included a slow, narrow CME from a filament eruption centered near S32W36 around 16/1100 UTC with a subsequent CME off the SW limb at 16/1408 UTC in C2 imagery. Another filament eruption occurred beginning at 19/0724 UTC centered near N45E35 and created a CME off the NNW limb at 19/0948 UTC in C2 imagery. Modelling of both CMEs indicated a possible glancing blow on 21 and 22 Nov, respectively.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind parameters were in decline from 14-15 Nov under waning CH HSS influence. Mostly nominal conditions were observed through late on 18 Nov. At approximately 18/1615-19/2200 UTC, total field increased to a maximum of 12 nT while solar wind speed remained nominal. This was likely weak transient influence. Total field increased once again beginning at 20/0800 UTC, reaching near 12 nT with a subsequent rise in solar wind speed from 330-410 km/s suggesting the onset of a connection to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions were observed on 14-17 Nov and again on 19 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred on 18 and 20 Nov.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 November - 17 December 2022
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 21-28 Nov and on 13-17 Dec. A chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) exists on 29 Nov-12 Dec with the return of old Regions 3140 (N25, L=326) and 3141 (N14, L=318).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov-05 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 21 Nov-03 Dec, 08-09 Dec, and again on 17 Dec with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 21 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS activity. There is a possibility of a glancing blow from the 16 and 19 Nov CMEs contributing to geomagnetic field response on 21 and 22 Nov.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Nov 21 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
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