[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3149 (N21E16, Dai/beta) showed signs of new growth and development this period while the remaining three regions were in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low over 21-23 Nov with a slight chance for M-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 21-23 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were enhanced this period. Total field strength reached 12 nT and the Bz component reached as far south -11 nT at 21/0100 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from between 300-350 km/s to a peak of ~465 km/s at 21/0945 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 21-22 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and the glancing blow arrival of a CME from 19 Nov on 22 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Minor geomagnetic storm periods are likely on 21 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 22 Nov due to continued CH HSS influences and the glancing blow arrival of a CME from 19 Nov. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 Nov under waning CH HSS influence.

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