[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 3147 (S12W30, Hax/alpha) and 3149 (N21W24, Eao/beta) were relatively stable and changed little. Region 3151 (S16W15, Cro/Beta) exhibited slight decay in its intermediate spots. Region 3152 (N26E51, Bxo/Beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable.

A high-latitude filament eruption was observed by GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery near the northwest limb beginning near 23/1500 UTC. While most of the material appears to have been reabsorbed, this event did result in possibly two separate CMEs. Analysis and modeling of this event determined it to be well off the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares, and a slight chance for M-class flares on 24-26 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 24-26 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT, the Bz component was at or near neutral. Solar wind speeds averaged near 300 km/a. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to bring enhanced parameters beginning on 24 Nov and continuing through 26 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, 24-26 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

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