[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3149 (N22W38, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1/Sf flare, the largest of the period. The region simplified over the past 24 hours with the decay of its trailer spots. Region 3151 (S15E40, Dro/beta) was also in decay. Region 3147 (S11W44, Hsx/alpha) was stable and Region 3152 (N27E30, Cro/beta) exhibited minor spot development.

Other activity included an erupting filament, centered near S35E04, began erupting after ~24/1300 UTC in GONG/H-Alpha imagery. Further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if an Earth-directed component was produced by the event. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares on 25-27 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 25-27 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased from nominal levels at the beginning of the period to near 15 nT by 24/2320 UTC. Around the same time, wind speeds increased from near 400 km/s to between 450-500 km/s after 25/0200 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from variable to predominantly positive after 24/2100 UTC.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue over 25 Nov and extending through 27 Nov. Effects from the 22 Nov CME are also expected on 27 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods 25 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to active conditions are likely over 26-27 Nov due to continued CH HSS influence and possible CME effects on 27 Nov.

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