[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. All four numbered active regions were either stable or in gradual decay. Several CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery but all appeared to be either limb or farside events.

An eruptive filament that began lifting off midday on 24 Nov near S35E04 was analyzed and modeled. The results suggested the ejecta was south of the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares on 26-28 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 26 Nov with moderate to high levels possible on 27-28 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 26-28 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was elevated to 6-11 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-7 nT. Wind speeds ranged between ~450-550 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately positive sector.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue over 26 Nov and extending through 28 Nov. Effects from the 22 Nov CME are also likely on 27 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active conditions, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels possible, over 26-27 Nov due to continued CH HSS influence and possible CME effects on 27 Nov. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected by 28 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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