[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C9/Sf flare at 31/2148 UTC from Region 3180 (N20E49, Dao/beta). All active regions were observed to be stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares over 01-03 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,110 pfu observed at 31/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced this period under persistent positive polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds were between 525-625 km/s, total field strength reached 6 nT, and Bz briefly reached -6 nT.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to wane over 01-02 Jan, with ambient conditions expected to prevail on 03 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels this period in response to persistent CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 01-02 Jan under waning CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 03 Jan.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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