[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2023 Jan 02 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jan 02 0220 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 01 January 2023

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 27 Dec, 29 Dec, and 30 Dec. The largest flare was an M3/2n (R1-Minor) from Region 3176 (N20, L=008, class/area=Eko/430 on 31 Dec). Other significant regions that produced low-level M-flare activity were Region 3169 (N22, L=117, class/area=Fkc/490 on 27 Dec) and Region 3180 (N19, L=309, class/area=Dso/220 on 01 Jan). Associated with flare M-flare activity on 30 Dec from Region 3176 was an EIT wave, visible in SUVI 195 imagery around 30/1528 UTC, and a CME signature in subsequent STEREO-A COR2 coronagraph imagery around 30/1653 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested onset on 04 Jan. No other CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed from available coronagraph imagery. The other remaining 11 numbered active regions observed during the reporting were either quiet or only produced C-class activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 26 Dec - 01 Jan. The highest flux observed was 3,680 pfu at 30/1510 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. The arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 24 Dec combined with positive polarity CH HSS influence caused G1 conditions on 26-27 Dec. Solar wind speeds during that time ranged between 500-600 km/s. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 28 Dec and through most of 29 Dec. At the end of 29 Dec, a CIR ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS cause conditions to against increase to G1 conditions on 30 Dec. Under the influence of the coronal hole, wind speeds increased to between 500-600 km/s through the remainder of the reporting period. As total magnetic field strength dropped from a peak of 12 nT on 30 Dec to between 4-7 nt over 31 Dec - 01 Jan, geomagnetic conditions responded with quiet to active conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 January - 28 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares, through the outlook period due to multiple M-class flare (R1-Minor) producing regions both on the visible disk and regions on the farside that are due to rotate back onto the disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 02-03 Jan, 05-09 Jan, and 20-28 Jan. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are likely on 04-05 Jan due to combined effects of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Dec and coronal hole effects. G1 conditions are again likely on 19-20 Jan and 26 Jan due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Active conditions are likely on 02 Jan, 06 Jan, 18 Jan, and 27 Jan; unsettled conditions are likely on 07 Jan, 14 Jan, 17 Jan, 21 Jan, 25 Jan, and 28 Jan. All active and unsettled conditions are in response to anticipated effects from multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.

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