[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Occasional C-class flares kept solar activity at low levels. The two most notable flares, a C2.3 at 04/0000 UTC and a C2.7 at 04/0731 UTC, were from a region beyond the E limb. Of the five spotted regions on the visible disk, Region 3180 (N19E10, Dhi/beta-gamma) was the only region to exhibit growth. The remaining four regions were either stable or in decay.

From approximately 04/0304 - 0421 UTC, a nearly 15 degree long filament, centered near S36E18, was observed lifting off the visible disk in GONG H-alpha imagery. Associated coronal dimming was also observed in GOES SUVI 195 imagery near that area. A very narrow, faint, and slow moving (~165 km/s) CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, likely associated with this filament. Modeling is underway to determine if any of the CME has an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and slight chance of X-class (R3; Strong) events 04-06 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 4,070 pfu at 03/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at high levels 04-06 Jan, with a possible decrease to normal-moderate levels 04-05 Jan due to potential CME or CIR arrival related effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the likely arrival of the anticipated CME from 30 Dec. An approximately 38 nT geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at the DSCOVR spacecraft at approximately 04/0259 UTC, likely signaling the passing of the 30 Dec CME. Total field strength increased to near 20 nT, Bz had a maximum southward deflection to near -11, and wind speeds peaked near 450 km/s. Phi was variable in the beginning of the period before settling into a mostly positive orientation.

**Note that there was an extensive data gap at DSCOVR from around 03/2125 UTC, extending through 04/0317 UTC, which may have precluded obtaining the most accurate data.

Forecast: Continued enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely on 04 Jan as CME influence persists. While most CME influences are likely to end on 05 Jan, CH HSS effects are expected to continue. Some weakening of the CH HSS is likely on 06 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with G1 (Minor) storm levels possible on 04 Jan, due to CME influences and possible CIR arrival. CME influences are likely to diminish on 05 Jan, yet CH HSS effects are expected to continue and G1 levels remain likely. Activity is anticipated to diminish on 06 Jan, with quiet to active conditions still expected.

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