[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3177 (S18W30, Cao/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C8.4 flare at 04/1845 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3182 (S18E65, Cao/beta) was responsible for the second largest event, a long-duration C6.8 flare at 05/0914 UTC, as well as several lower level C-flares. Region 3177 exhibited consolidation in its leading spots, but decay in the intermediate spots. Region 3182 was too close to the solar limb to get an accurate analysis of its magnetic makeup, but will be more closely examined as it rotates further onto the visible disk. Region 3180 (N19W03, Dsi/beta-gamma) was mostly unchanged, while Region 3181 (S18E11, Dao/beta) developed a few spots north of the leader. Region 3176 (N19W64, Hsx/alpha) continued to decay as it rotated nearer to the western limb.

No new, potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a continuing chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class flares (R3; Strong) due mainly to the magnetic complexity of Regions 3180 and 3182.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate levels due to changes in the solar wind. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 05 Jan and increase to high levels 06-07 Jan due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment, likely attributed to residual CME effects, for the majority of the period. Total field strength remained enhanced, Bz remained north, and wind speeds continued to decrease. Phi began the period in a positive orientation, but transitioned a negative posture after 04/1800 UTC. Near the end of the period, at around 05/1030 UTC, Bz saw a deflection to -12 nT with temperature, winds, and density all seeing minor adjustments simultaneously. This could be an indication of the arrival of the anticipated CH HSS, but further data is needed for confirmation.

Forecast: Already weakening CME effects should continue diminish through 05 Jan. However, combined weakening CME/arriving CH HSS influences are expected to keep the solar wind field enhanced for the remainder of 05 Jan into 06 Jan. CH HSS effects should begin waning by 07 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at G1 (Minor) storm levels before decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels by periods end.

Forecast: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 05 Jan as CME influences wane, yet CH HSS influences begin. Unsettled to active levels are expected, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming by 06 Jan as CH HSS influences persist. Mainly quiet to unsettled levels are likely to return by 07 Jan due to weakening CH HSS effects.

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