[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. An unnumbered area of flux behind the SE limb produced two M1 flares at 08/0854 UTC and 08/0948 UTC. Regions 3181 (S20W12, Dki/beta-delta) and 3182 (S17E41, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced C-class flare activity and continued to exhibit growth. The remaining regions with sunspots were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate over 08-10 Jan. M-class flares are likely with a chance for X-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a 10 MeV proton enhancement at minor storm levels over 08-10 Jan. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions reflected waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds ranged between 400-465 km/s, total field strength was mostly steady near 7 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/-7 nT. Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on 08 and 10 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Ambient conditions are expected to prevail on 09 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08 Jan and 10 Jan, with quiet levels expected to prevail on 09 Jan.

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