[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Four M-class flares were observed this period. Region 3184 (S14E74, Dao/beta) produced three M1 flares at 08/1507, 08/1911, and 09/0102 UTC. Region 3181 (S19W26, Eki/beta-delta) produced an M2 flare at 09/0901 UTC. Regions 3181 and 3182 (S17E27, beta-gamma-delta) exhibited minor growth this period. New Region 3185 (N20E07, Bxo/beta) emerged and was numbered this period. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Forecast: Additional M-class flare activity is likely, with a chance for X-class flare activity, over 09-11 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement at minor storm levels over 09-11 Jan. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was nominal this period. Solar wind speeds ranged between 350-450 km/s, total field was steady near 5-6 nT, and the Bz component was mostly neutral or northward. Anomalous solar wind data was observed between 09/0630-0930 UTC due to peak density tracking issues.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 09 Jan. A slight enhancement is expected on 10-11 Jan due to the anticipated influences of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 09 Jan. Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected on 10-11 Jan due to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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