[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels due an X1.9/3B flare from AR 3184 at 09/1850 UTC, which was the largest of the period. Associated with this event was a tenflare which registered 229 sfu between 09/1846-09/1850 UTC. Region 3184 (S13E60, Dso/Beta-Delta) rotated further into view from the eastern limb this period revealing trailing spots which while still slightly foreshortened appear to have a delta magnetic configuration. Other notable activity included an M5.1 flare at 10/0016 UTC from newly numbered AR 3186 (N25E72, Cao/Beta), and an M2.6/2N flare from Region 3181 (S17W47, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta). Regions 3181 and 3182 (S16E13, Fkc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) continued to be the largest and most magnetically complex ARs on the visible solar disk with 3182 even increasing in overall length, gaining additional leading spots. New spots were observed emerging near N13E21, but remain un-numbered at this time due to lack of activity and age. The remaining three unmentioned numbered regions were mostly unremarkable in comparison.

Multiple CMEs were noted emerging from the eastern limb. However, none of these appear to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Moderate solar activity is likely, with the continuing likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a chance of an X-class (R3; Strong) event 10-12 Jan due to the combined flare probabilities of primarily Regions 3184, 3182, and 3181.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels, but did show slight signs of elevation due to the aforementioned flare activity.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 10-12 Jan, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background. However, there is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) event all three days due mainly to the increasingly favorable location and probability of a solar energetic proton event from, in particular, Region 3181.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected near ambient-like conditions. Total field ranged from 5-9 nT, and the Bz component of the field was mostly near neutral or northward with a few very brief deflections of up to -5 nT. Solar wind speeds were below or at 350 km/s for a majority of the period, but exhibited a gradual increase to near 400 km/s during the latter half. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: A mild disturbance in the IMF is possible 10-11 Jan due to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influences. Any enhanced conditions are likely to weaken on 12 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 10-11 Jan in varying response to CH HSS effects. Mainly quiet levels are expected 12 Jan.

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