[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5.6/1B flare at 11/0156 UTC from AR 3184 and an X1.0/2B flare at 10/2247 UTC from AR 3186, the latter of which was the largest of the period. The X1 event was accompanied by a tenflare radio burst registering 320 sfu at 10/2246 UTC, while the M5.6 event boasted a tenflare reaching 290 sfu at 11/0153 UTC as well as a type II radio sweep of 628 km/s. Region 3186 (N24E58, Dai/Beta-Delta) rotated further onto the visible disk this period revealing a delta magnetic configuration in its leading spots, accounting for its large flare activity. This AR also produced numerous lower-end M-class flares, the most notable of which was an M3.1 flare at 11/0833 UTC - discussed further below. Region 3184 (S13E47, Eki/Beta-Gamma-Delta) sustained its mixed polarity with a delta configuration in its intermediate spots, and was responsible for other lower-end M-class flare activity as well. Other M-class activity reaching M1.3/SF at 11/0609 UTC was noted from AR 3181 (S18W54, Ekc/Beta-Gamma) as it exhibited some decay in its trailing intermediate spots. Region 3182 (S17W01, Ehc/Beta-Gamma), the remaining large, magnetically complex AR inhabiting the visible solar disk, produced C-class flares and underwent decay in its smaller leading spots. The remaining regions were virtually unremarkable in comparison and relatively quiet.

The aforementioned X1 and M3.1 flares, both from AR 3186 appear to be the culprit for CMEs observed by the SOHO-NASA LASCO spacecraft. The main bulk of the plasma of first can be observed in C2 imagery emerging from the northeast portion of the occulting disk first at approximately 11/0125 UTC. The next appears more northerly in reference to the occulting disk and is first visible in C2 at approximately 11/0848 UTC. Modeling of the first event is currently underway to rule out any unlikely Earth-directed component. However, as of time of this writing, we await adequate coronagraph imagery to perform proper analysis of the second, faster, broader event.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain moderate, with the continuing likelihood of M-class flares and a chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 11-13 Jan due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 11-13 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background, with a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm due to the combined solar energetic proton event potential of the several large sunspot group complexes present.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a minor disturbance in the IMF likely due to influences from the proximity to an anticipated CH HSS. Total IMF strength ranged mainly from 4-9 nT. The Bz component varied, with a few more pronounced, but short duration southward deflections of up to -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased from about 360 km/s to peaks near 425 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative while undertaking brief excursions into a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Disturbances and enhancements in the IMF are likely to continue through 11 Jan due to effects from proximity to or weak connection with an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Any influences are anticipated to wane on 12 Jan and a return to a more ambient-like state is expected on 13 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to the mildly enhanced and disturbed solar wind field.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 11 Jan in varied response to CH HSS effects, with a return to mainly quiet levels 12-13 Jan.

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