[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 3181 (S19W57, Eai/Beta-Gamma) was little changed and responsible for an M1.2 flare at 12/1128 UTC. Region 3182 (S18W15, Ekc/Beta-Gamma) underwent some decay and then consolidation in its intermediate spots while remaining quiet in relation to the other larger ARs on the disk. Region 3184 (S13E32, Esi/Beta-Gamma) increased in overall length while decaying in the trailing spots. AR 3184 produced C-class flares with the largest being a C8/1N flare at 11/2100 UTC, which USAF observatories reported a corresponding type II radio sweep of 899 km/s from 11/2057-2110 UTC. Region 3185 (N24W35, Dao/Beta) grew in length, matured in its leading spots, but was relatively quiet. Region 3186 (N25E44, Dhi/Beta-Gamma) continued to be the main source of activity this period as it exhibited growth in its trailing spot group. AR 3186 was responsible for consecutive M1.1 and M1.5 flares at 12/0618 and 12/0646 respective, the latter of which was the largest of the period. Region 3188 (S23E63, Cro/Beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. Finally, new spots were observed in NASA SDO HMI imagery just NW of old 3187 (N16, L=216) that remain un-numbered at this time due to lack of development, flaring and USAF observatory reports.

At approximately 11/1700 UTC a CME was observed by SOHO-NASA C2 imagery emerging from the SE portion of the occulting disk. The source of this event appears to be mostly related to prominence activity in the vicinity and/or an AR located just beyond that portion of the limb. Initial analysis and modeling of this event determined no Earth-directed component, as anticipated.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with isolated M-class flares and a slight chance of an X-class event 12-14 Jan due primarily to the combined flare probabilities for Regions 3181, 3182, 3184, and 3186.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 12-14 Jan. Due to the overall probability of a solar energetic proton event, there is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly enhanced and disturbed state - likely due to anticipated CH HSS proximity or weak connection influences. Total IMF strength was mainly 6-9 nT and the Bz component was variable ranging 6 nT to brief deflections of -8 nT. Solar wind speed readings, primarily measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, tended to roam 400-450 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind parameters are anticipated to gradually decline to an ambient-like sate over the course of 12-13 Jan. A weak enhancement near midday is possible 14 Jan with glancing, northeasterly influences from the 11 Jan M3 CME event from AR 3186.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to tenuous negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 12 Jan as CH HSS effects wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 13 Jan. A few unsettled periods, with the chance for isolated active levels, are possible starting midday 14 Jan with any glancing influence from the aforementioned 11 Jan CME event. However, confidence in model run returns is somewhat low as of time of this writing given the bulk of the material is well north and east off the Sun-Earth line. So, otherwise, primarily quiet conditions are expected on day three as well.

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