[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with X-ray flux solidly at C-class levels and nine designated sunspot groups present on the visible solar disk. Region 3190 (S14E28, Ehi/beta-gamma-delta) gained area but underwent some magnetic complexity dissipation and its delta configuration weakened. Region 3191 (N12E16, Dkc/beta) appeared to lose its mixed polarity configuration. Region 3192 (N19E46, Fki/beta-gamma) underwent minor changes in layout with its mixed magnetic signature weakening, and produced a C9.3 flare at 17/0013 UTC. Region 3186 (N25W21, Eho/beta-gamma) retained a mixed magnetic polarity spot in the trailer region, but was otherwise in a predominantly simple bipolar layout. Remaining regions underwent minor changes or decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events 17-19 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance of high levels 17-19 Jan due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background all three days. There is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor solar radiation storm) event due to the combined solar energetic proton event probabilities of the active regions present on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS effects and weakening CME influences. Total IMF strength was mainly between 3-5 nT. The Bz component was variable. Solar wind speed decreased from near 475 km/s to speeds near 450 km/s. The phi angle deviated between sectors, but was mostly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind field is anticipated to continue trending towards an ambient, background-like regime on 17 Jan. Additional CH HSS effects are likely to cause further disturbances and enhancements 18-19 Jan. Contribution to disturbances in the solar wind on 19 Jan may occur due to the proximity of or weak flanking influences of a CME (from 14 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied response to passing transient effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 17 Jan in response to waning CH HSS effects and weakening CME influences. 18 Jan is expected to experience quiet to unsettled conditions, with an escalation to active levels on 19 Jan due to additional CH HSS effects and possible contribution of any arriving or proximity influences of a CME (from 14 Jan).

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