[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 18 1240 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 18 1240 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels with a pair of M1 flares from Region 3190 (S14E14, Eki/beta-gamma)-the first was at 17/2329 UTC, and the second at 18/1035 UTC. The other notable flare during the period was a C7 at 18/0519 UTC from Region 3190. Region 3182 (S17, L-230) rotated around the west limb. Region 3194 (S23, L=131) decayed into a plage region. The remaining regions underwent minor changes or slow decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of an X-class (R3; Strong) flare 18-19 Jan. Solar activity is anticipated to become low with a chance of an M-class event and slight chance of an X-class flare on 20 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 18-20 Jan, with a chance for high levels on 20 Jan due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background, however, there is a slight chance for a S1 (Minor solar radiation storm) due to the current solar energetic proton event chances.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return towards a slow regime until 17/2100 UTC when transient influences began to cause enhancements. Total field strength increased to 15 nT while Bz had a maximum deviation to -12 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased to near 350 km/s before increasing to ~425-450 km/s after the aforementioned enhancement. The phi angle varied between sectors early before settling in a positive orientation for the latter half of the period.

Forecast: The currently enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue through 20 Jan with the addition of CH HSS influence. CH HSS influences are anticipated to begin to wane on 20 Jan and any CME effects will likely weaken.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with transient influences.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected 18 Jan due to combined likely glancing CME impacts and then later CH HSS effects. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods are likely on 19 Jan due to CH HSS effects and possible contribution from the nearby passage or weak flaking influence from a CME. Conditions are expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled on 20 Jan as CH HSS effects wane and any transient influences weaken.

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