[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class activity from Region 3196 (N12E38, Dso/beta) - the largest was an M1.7 at 19/1012 UTC. Region 3192 (N16E07, Fki/beta-gamma) produced a C9 flare at 18/2047 UTC. Region 3190 (S15E03, Eki/beta-gamma) contributed a C7 flare at 19/0543 UTC. The remaining spot groups were mostly inactive and underwent minor changes.

A CME was first clearly observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1336 UTC departing the west-southwest limb of the Sun. This event is considered a far-sided event. Another southeasterly CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 18/1900 UTC. The source of this event appears to be a prominence eruption from the southeast limb beginning near 18/1800 UTC in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. This CME is also not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a continuing likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2) on 19-21 Jan. There is a slight chance for an X-class (R3) event all three days.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 19-21 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weak transient influence. Total field strength was between 5-8 nT. The Bz component was variable. Solar wind speed averaged near 425 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind field is likely to be enhanced on 19-21 Jan. Transient influences are expected to persist through 19 Jan. Additional enhancements are likely on 20-21 Jan due to CH HSS onset.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active levels 19-21 Jan in response to any CME and CH HSS related effects. There is a chance of isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods on 19-20 Jan.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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