[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed during the period. Region 3194 (S25W76, Dai/beta) was the main source of most of the flare activity, including a C6 flare at 24/0426 UTC, the largest of the period. This region continued to decay as it neared the western limb. Region 3190 (S14W63, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most magnetically complex region, and was also the source of several C-class flares. This region exhibited significant leader spot development as it approached the western limb. Regions 3196 (N13W28, Cso/beta), 3197 (N24W16, Axx/alpha), and 3198 all had slight spot development as they made their way across the solar disk, yet remained fairly quiet. The remaining numbered active regions were either stable or in gradual decay.

A fairly fast-moving CME was observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 23/0500 UTC. The event seems to be associated with activity on the far side of the Sun. An additional CME was detected off the NE limb beginning near 23/2300 UTC in C2. This event was appears to be from on or beyond the NE limb and determined to not be Earth-directed. A Type II radio emission (368 km/s) was reported beginning at 24/0324 UTC but was not associated with significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 24-26 Jan as Regions 3190 and 3194 continue to exhibit complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 24 Jan with a likely increase to moderate to high levels on 25-26 Jan due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period mildly enhanced following the suspected passing of a transient. Total field was at or near 5 nT for most of the period and the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 450-525 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced on 24-26 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with possible CME influence from the 20 Jan filament eruptions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to isolated active levels over 24-26 Jan in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects combined with possible CME influence.

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