[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels with a long duration M4.6 flare peaking at 25/1011 UTC. The source region appears to be 3190 (S14W85, Dkc/beta-gamma). No significant radio reports accompanied this flare. Updated coronagraph imagery is needed for any CME analysis for this event.

A long duration C9/Sf flare was observed at 24/1435 UTC, likely associated with the eruption of an approximately 14° long filament centered near N29W58. Analysis indicated that the bulk of the material was ejected well north of the Sun-Earth line, with no impacts expected at Earth. Another C9 flare was observed at 25/0453 UTC from Region 3192 (N16W76, Cao/beta). Additional low-level C-class flares were also observed during the period from a variety of different regions.

Region 3190 remained the most magnetically complex region, but did show signs of decay as it approached the western limb. Regions, 3196 (N15W40, Cso/beta), 3197 (N20W30, Dao/beta) and 3199 (N16W01, Cao/beta) all had minor growth, but were mostly inactive. Regions 3198 (N26W16, Cso/beta) and 3200 (N23E29, Cao/beta) remained quiescent. New spot group 3201 (N25E52, Hsx/alpha) was numbered, but was unremarkable during the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 25-26 Jan as Region 3190 remains magnetically complex. Probabilities drop slightly by 27 Jan as more of these two regions exit the solar disk.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 25 Jan, with a likely increase to moderate to high levels late on 25/early 26 Jan due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a return to mostly background conditions. Total field averaged near 5 nT for most of the period, while the Bz component was variable between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 400-450 km/s. Phi was positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to see enhancements on 25-26 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influence, and any weak peripheral transient effects. Conditions should begin to weaken by 27 Jan as CH/CME effects dissipate.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to isolated active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 period over 25-26 Jan, in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects combined with possible CME influence. By 27 Jan, conditions should begin to return to more nominal levels.

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