[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, and an M2 at 25/2235 UTC. The source region for the first flare appears to be Region 3190 (S14, L=124). An M2 flare was then observed from Region 3192 (N15, L=121) at 25/2235 UTC. No associated CMEs were detected in connection with these flares.

A CME was observed off the eastern limb beginning near 26/0200 UTC in C2. This event appears to be associated with a region on the far side of the disk.

Additional activity included a Type II sweep (317 km/s) that was likely associated with a C2 flare at 26/0248 UTC from Region 3200 (N21E16, Cao/beta). Coronal dimming was also observed near this region at the time of the flare but no CME was detected in coronagraph imagery.

Region 3196 (N19W47, Cso/beta) exhibited minor growth, while the majority of the previously existing spot groups were either stable or in decay. New Regions 3202 (N13W53, Cao/beta) and 3203 (N18E25, Bxo/beta) emerged and were numbered.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 26 Jan as Regions 3190 and 3192 rotate just beyond the west limb. Probabilities drop slightly by 27 Jan as these regions rotate further onto the far side of the disk.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 26 Jan, with chance for high levels as weak CH HSS influence persists. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected minor enhancements attributed to weak positive polarity CH effects. Total field averaged near 8 nT for most of the period and Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds were largely suspect throughout the period, but most indications showed speeds between 400-500 km/s. Phi was mostly positive during the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is still expected to see enhancements on 26 Jan as positive polarity CH HSS influence continues. Conditions should begin to weaken on 27-28 Jan as CH effects dissipate.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely, on 26 Jan as weak positive polarity CH HSS effects linger. By 27 Jan, conditions should begin to return to more nominal levels, continuing into 28 Jan.

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