[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high. Region 3217 (S12E29, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive X1.1/2b flare (R3-Strong) at 11/1548 UTC, the strongest of the period. Lower level M-class flares were also produced by Regions 3217 and 3208 (N08W85, Cao/beta). Slight decay and separation was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3213 (N30W57, Fki/beta-gamma), whereas the central spots appeared to consolidate. Slight growth was also observed in Region 3214 (N12W39, Dki/beta). No significant changes were noted in the rest of the spotted Regions. New Region 3225 (S22E13, Bxo/beta) appeared in the SE quadrant and was numbered.

Additional activity included an energetic filament eruption centered near N33E33. This event was visible in SDO/AIA 304 and H-alpha imagery beginning ~11/1000 UTC. Subsequent imagery indicated a fast-moving CME signature to the NE. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the ejecta was directed far north of Earths orbit. No other CMEs appear to be Earth-directed in available coronagraph imagery.

Another possible filament eruption was observed near S12E42 beginning at 12/0920 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. This event was associated with an M1 flare at 12/0927 UTC from Region 3217. We are waiting on coronagraph imagery to confirm a potential CME.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance of isolated X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 12-14 Feb, due to the flare potential of multiple complex active regions across the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels levels over 12-14 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 12-14 Feb due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3213 and 3217.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced through the period with solar wind speeds ranging from 462-532 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain weakly enhanced through the rest of the UTC day on 12 Feb. A trend towards nominal conditions is expected over 13-14 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12 Feb followed by a return to mostly quiet conditions on 13-14 Feb.

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