[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2023 Feb 13 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Feb 13 0216 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 February 2023

Solar activity was at low to high levels during the period. Numerous C-class flares were observed from Regions 3211 (S17, L=295, class/area Dao/100 on 06 Feb), 3213 (N30, L=223, class/area Fki/480 on 12 Feb) and 3214 (N12, L=205, class/area Dki/380 on 11 Feb). 07 Feb experienced R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity with M-class activity from Region 3213 to include an M6.3 observed at 07/2307 UTC. R1 (Minor) levels occurred on 08 Feb from Region 3213 and 3217 (S12, L=137, class/area Dki/400 on 12 Feb). 09 Feb witnessed six total R1 (Minor) flares from Regions 3213 and 3217. Of note was an M1.1/Sf at 09/0717 UTC from Region 3217 with associated Type II (672 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions and an M2.8 from Region 3217 at 09/0907 UTC with associated Type II (453 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions.

10 Feb saw five total R1 (Minor) flares from Regions 3208 (N08, L=251, class/area Dao/070 on 11 Feb), 3220 (S15, L=122, class area Cso/150 on 12 Feb) and 3213. At 10/030 UTC, Region 3213 produced an M3.7/2n with associated Type II (376 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. R1 (Minor) levels were reached on 11 Feb from Regions 3208, 3217, 3220 and 3222 (N30, L=251, class/area Dao/040 on 12 Feb). R3 (Strong) levels were observed at 11/1548 UTC from Region 3217 when the region produced an X1.1/1b flare. The highlight period ended on 12 Feb with R1 (Minor) flare activity from Regions 3217 and 3222. The flare and DSF activity during the week produced numrous CMEs, but most were detected to be Earth misses. The lone exception was from CME activity from events that took place on the Sun over 10-11 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 06, 07 and 11 Feb. High levels were observed on 08-10 Feb and 12 Feb with a peak flux of 2,520 pfu observed at 08/1550 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at primarly unsettled to active levels, with a single G1 (Minor) minor storm reading late on 09 Feb. Activity was mostly associated with negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 February - 11 March 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low to M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, a chance for a proton event exists throughout the period from the more complex, magnetically active regions.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 13-15 Feb and 07-11 Mar. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 16 Feb - 06 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 14-15 Feb due to CME activity and 05-07 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled levels are expected on 16 Feb due to waning CME activity, 22-24 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS activity, 27 Feb, 02 Mar and 08 Mar, all due to negative polarity CH HSS activity.

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